The water has flown under the bridge, and over it, and look what a mess it has revealed. The floods in Kerala have claimed more than 300 lives and cost the state as much as INR20,000 crore by some estimates. Some of the devastation could have been prevented with proper forecasting, but how many flood-forecasting stations does Kerala have?
Zero.
Although the state and central governments have drawn criticism for failing to monitor and control the situation, the fact is the government did monitor — just not in the right places.
That happened because the government’s flood-monitoring plans have failed to keep pace with the changing realities of climate and development.
A quick look at the number of forecasting stations in the country reveals a clear bias towards the Ganga and Brahmaputra river systems and the states these rivers flow through. Even between them, the number of stations on the Ganga and its tributaries far outstrips those on any other river — more than a third of all the forecasting stations lie on the Ganga and its tributaries.
Yet, over the last decade or so some of the biggest flood incidents, except the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, have happened elsewhere — such as Tamil Nadu (2015); Jammu and Kashmir (2014, 300 lives lost); Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka (2009, 300 lives lost); and Maharashtra (2005, 1,100 lives lost).
How many forecasting stations do these states have?
Three in Jammu and Kashmir
14 in Andhra Pradesh
And 10 each in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Maharashtra.
Now, let’s look at the states along the Ganga.
Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh together have 44 stations.
Bihar has 34.
And West Bengal has 14.
Stuck in the old metrics
“There’s a reason why we monitor those states more closely. The Ganga and the Brahmaputra have historically had more incidents of flooding, along with loss to life and agriculture, than other river systems,” says a senior official in the Ministry of Water Resources, River Development, and Ganga Rejuvenation.
The missing link, however, lies in the government’s own data — trends in flooding appear to be changing rapidly.
The frequency as well as intensity of such incidents have reduced significantly in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, while others, such as Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, which have traditionally faced fewer floods, are seeing more pronounced episodes now.“Factors such as changing climate situations do appear to be resulting in areas that were not affected by floods earlier getting affected now,” says Himanshu Thakkar, an expert on water, and the coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People.
The complaint is that the government is not monitoring either enough or efficiently enough.
“If you can forecast floods you can deal with it better. Look at what has happened just in the last few years. In June 2013, massive floods hit Uttarakhand but there was no forecast. In September 2014, Kashmir was under a deluge, and again there was no forecast. For Kerala too, there was no forecast. We need an independent agency to conduct all the hydrological forecasting,” adds Thakkar.
In 2014, when floods hit Kashmir, the state had no forecasting stations. They were added the year after. Tamil Nadu got covered in 2016, and Kerala still has none.
The Central Water Commission’s (CWC) own analysis bears out what Thakkar is getting at — it shows a clear, directly proportional link between the number of forecasting stations and the loss of human lives in floods. According to Sharad Chandra, director of flood-forecast monitoring, CWC, the government is now planning to construct stations on the Periyar river. “We are also looking at mathematical modelling to predict flooding in the flash rivers in Kerala. But that involves a number of factors coming together, including weather data from IMD (India Meteorological Department),” says Chandra.
However, the number of forecasting stations monitored by the CWC has barely risen over the last 15 years. Besides knee-jerk expansion into states that faced significant floods, not much has changed.
Which is also why if the estimates of the Disaster Management Division of the Ministry of Home Affairs are anything to go by, the states that have remained relatively unaffected by floods until now may be at severe risk.
Punjab, which does not have a single forecasting station, is right on top of the department’s flood-vulnerability index. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh figure on the third and fourth spots because the index takes into account not just the frequency of floods but also the potential for losses in flood-prone and flood-vulnerable areas.
The south continues to be neglected
The government is cognisant of the fact that monsoons are changing rapidly. In a notification issued in December 2013 the government said, “… in view of the early setting in and late withdrawal of Southwest monsoon during the past several years, it has now been decided with the approval of competent authority to modify the designated flood period for the various [river] basins, including those organisations where flood forecasting system is likely to start during the XII Plan period.”
In effect, the government had to start monitoring at least 15 days in advance, from May 1, extending to December 31 for some river basins in the southern part of the country.
However, the capacity for monitoring in the south remains poor. Only 44 of all 226 forecasting stations are in the five southern states, even though the region faces the longest spell of monsoon in the country.Changing climate, along with encroachment of floodplains, rampant construction, dumping of solid waste, and quarrying, have increased the uncertainties. Until monitoring is strengthened significantly, losses will continue to mount.
Disaster Resilience for Sustainable Development, a 2017 report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, says traditional hazard analysis based on historical data is no longer sufficient. “Hazard characteristics are changing as a result of climate change. For instance, a 100-year flood or drought may become a 30-year flood or drought. Climate scenarios inevitably have ranges of uncertainty, which increase as they project further into the future.”
However, the government’s plans overlook such facts. The next phase of expansion in forecasting activity continues to be focussed on the Ganga river systems, with 10 new stations being planned in Jharkhand, two in Uttarakhand, and one each in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Sikkim is expected to enter the list soon with eight stations, Rajasthan is likely to get nine more, and Himachal one.
But the plan for the southern states covers only Tamil Nadu (four new) and Telangana (five new).
Kerala is left out again.
Zero.
Although the state and central governments have drawn criticism for failing to monitor and control the situation, the fact is the government did monitor — just not in the right places.
That happened because the government’s flood-monitoring plans have failed to keep pace with the changing realities of climate and development.
A quick look at the number of forecasting stations in the country reveals a clear bias towards the Ganga and Brahmaputra river systems and the states these rivers flow through. Even between them, the number of stations on the Ganga and its tributaries far outstrips those on any other river — more than a third of all the forecasting stations lie on the Ganga and its tributaries.
Yet, over the last decade or so some of the biggest flood incidents, except the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, have happened elsewhere — such as Tamil Nadu (2015); Jammu and Kashmir (2014, 300 lives lost); Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka (2009, 300 lives lost); and Maharashtra (2005, 1,100 lives lost).
How many forecasting stations do these states have?
Three in Jammu and Kashmir
14 in Andhra Pradesh
And 10 each in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Maharashtra.
Now, let’s look at the states along the Ganga.
Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh together have 44 stations.
Bihar has 34.
And West Bengal has 14.
Stuck in the old metrics
“There’s a reason why we monitor those states more closely. The Ganga and the Brahmaputra have historically had more incidents of flooding, along with loss to life and agriculture, than other river systems,” says a senior official in the Ministry of Water Resources, River Development, and Ganga Rejuvenation.
The missing link, however, lies in the government’s own data — trends in flooding appear to be changing rapidly.
The frequency as well as intensity of such incidents have reduced significantly in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, while others, such as Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, which have traditionally faced fewer floods, are seeing more pronounced episodes now.“Factors such as changing climate situations do appear to be resulting in areas that were not affected by floods earlier getting affected now,” says Himanshu Thakkar, an expert on water, and the coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People.
The complaint is that the government is not monitoring either enough or efficiently enough.
“If you can forecast floods you can deal with it better. Look at what has happened just in the last few years. In June 2013, massive floods hit Uttarakhand but there was no forecast. In September 2014, Kashmir was under a deluge, and again there was no forecast. For Kerala too, there was no forecast. We need an independent agency to conduct all the hydrological forecasting,” adds Thakkar.
In 2014, when floods hit Kashmir, the state had no forecasting stations. They were added the year after. Tamil Nadu got covered in 2016, and Kerala still has none.
The Central Water Commission’s (CWC) own analysis bears out what Thakkar is getting at — it shows a clear, directly proportional link between the number of forecasting stations and the loss of human lives in floods. According to Sharad Chandra, director of flood-forecast monitoring, CWC, the government is now planning to construct stations on the Periyar river. “We are also looking at mathematical modelling to predict flooding in the flash rivers in Kerala. But that involves a number of factors coming together, including weather data from IMD (India Meteorological Department),” says Chandra.
However, the number of forecasting stations monitored by the CWC has barely risen over the last 15 years. Besides knee-jerk expansion into states that faced significant floods, not much has changed.
Which is also why if the estimates of the Disaster Management Division of the Ministry of Home Affairs are anything to go by, the states that have remained relatively unaffected by floods until now may be at severe risk.
Punjab, which does not have a single forecasting station, is right on top of the department’s flood-vulnerability index. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh figure on the third and fourth spots because the index takes into account not just the frequency of floods but also the potential for losses in flood-prone and flood-vulnerable areas.
The south continues to be neglected
The government is cognisant of the fact that monsoons are changing rapidly. In a notification issued in December 2013 the government said, “… in view of the early setting in and late withdrawal of Southwest monsoon during the past several years, it has now been decided with the approval of competent authority to modify the designated flood period for the various [river] basins, including those organisations where flood forecasting system is likely to start during the XII Plan period.”
In effect, the government had to start monitoring at least 15 days in advance, from May 1, extending to December 31 for some river basins in the southern part of the country.
However, the capacity for monitoring in the south remains poor. Only 44 of all 226 forecasting stations are in the five southern states, even though the region faces the longest spell of monsoon in the country.Changing climate, along with encroachment of floodplains, rampant construction, dumping of solid waste, and quarrying, have increased the uncertainties. Until monitoring is strengthened significantly, losses will continue to mount.
Disaster Resilience for Sustainable Development, a 2017 report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, says traditional hazard analysis based on historical data is no longer sufficient. “Hazard characteristics are changing as a result of climate change. For instance, a 100-year flood or drought may become a 30-year flood or drought. Climate scenarios inevitably have ranges of uncertainty, which increase as they project further into the future.”
However, the government’s plans overlook such facts. The next phase of expansion in forecasting activity continues to be focussed on the Ganga river systems, with 10 new stations being planned in Jharkhand, two in Uttarakhand, and one each in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Sikkim is expected to enter the list soon with eight stations, Rajasthan is likely to get nine more, and Himachal one.
But the plan for the southern states covers only Tamil Nadu (four new) and Telangana (five new).
Kerala is left out again.
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